Deadline day
Town halls across France will see a lot of activity at the end of the day today as candidates who qualified for the runoff in the legislative election rush in to file papers needed to be on the ballot before a 6 p.m. deadline.
The guessing game now is just how many will strategically pull out to try and deny Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally and its allies an absolute majority in parliament.
We mentioned here yesterday that it wasn't clear whether members of President Emmanuel Macron's party and its allies would stand down from three-way runoffs in order to promote a far-left candidate against the National Rally. The past 24 hours haven't really clarified things.
Last night, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, speaking on TF1 television, asked all groups to join forces to block the far right from winning an outright majority. He even suggested that in some cases that might mean voting for a far-left France Unbowed candidate — because the far right is the only group within spitting distance of taking control of the National Assembly.
But this morning, in Le Figaro, Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said he would refuse to vote for a far-left candidate. "We do not fight the RN with the values of France Unbowed," he said.
It will be interesting to see whose advice voters follow on Sunday.
We may not have the numbers on the tactical withdrawal by candidates who placed third in the first round for some time after the deadline since the information will need to be centralized. But Le Monde has given it a go by trying to estimate who will fall off the ballot based on statements either by the candidates themselves or by their parties.
As of noon today, Le Monde had counted 195 candidates that it expects to have pulled out, of which 124 were from the left and 69 from Macron's bloc. It also noted that at least one candidate for the National Rally had pulled out.
There's another twist in this story. Jordan Bardella, the National Rally president, said on Monday evening that he's doing deals of his own with some candidates of the center-right Republicans party. If there are agreements, we could see a few more National Rally candidates drop out to support those Republicans.
In short, the maneuvering isn't done yet.
Must-Read Stories
Macron hasn't been seen since the president and his wife, Brigitte, were spotted strolling the streets of the French coastal town of Le Touquet in dark sunglasses and leather bomber jackets a few hours before the scale of his defeat in legislative elections became known.
Emmanuel Macron and his wife Brigitte in Le Touquet-Paris-Plage, northern France, on June 29, 2024. Photographer: Ludovic Marin/AFP
The first round of France's snap legislative elections has narrowed the possible outcomes to two — both of which presage prolonged uncertainty for investors.
As the UK prepares to head to the polls on Thursday, the country's financial markets appear to be shedding their recent reputation for volatility — especially as the chaos in neighboring France spooks investors.
It's hard to overstate how nervous some people in markets are about the success of Marine Le Pen's hard-right Rassemblement National after the first round of France's legislative elections.
A hung parliament in France is more likely to produce a broad coalition government rather than an Italian-style technocrat-led administration, according to former central bank chief Jean-Claude Trichet.
The guessing game now is just how many will strategically pull out to try and deny Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally and its allies an absolute majority in parliament.
We mentioned here yesterday that it wasn't clear whether members of President Emmanuel Macron's party and its allies would stand down from three-way runoffs in order to promote a far-left candidate against the National Rally. The past 24 hours haven't really clarified things.
Anti-far right protesters in Paris, France, on Sunday, June 30, 2024. Photographer: Nathan Laine/Bloomberg
Last night, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, speaking on TF1 television, asked all groups to join forces to block the far right from winning an outright majority. He even suggested that in some cases that might mean voting for a far-left France Unbowed candidate — because the far right is the only group within spitting distance of taking control of the National Assembly.
But this morning, in Le Figaro, Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said he would refuse to vote for a far-left candidate. "We do not fight the RN with the values of France Unbowed," he said.
It will be interesting to see whose advice voters follow on Sunday.
We may not have the numbers on the tactical withdrawal by candidates who placed third in the first round for some time after the deadline since the information will need to be centralized. But Le Monde has given it a go by trying to estimate who will fall off the ballot based on statements either by the candidates themselves or by their parties.
As of noon today, Le Monde had counted 195 candidates that it expects to have pulled out, of which 124 were from the left and 69 from Macron's bloc. It also noted that at least one candidate for the National Rally had pulled out.
There's another twist in this story. Jordan Bardella, the National Rally president, said on Monday evening that he's doing deals of his own with some candidates of the center-right Republicans party. If there are agreements, we could see a few more National Rally candidates drop out to support those Republicans.
In short, the maneuvering isn't done yet.
Must-Read Stories
Macron hasn't been seen since the president and his wife, Brigitte, were spotted strolling the streets of the French coastal town of Le Touquet in dark sunglasses and leather bomber jackets a few hours before the scale of his defeat in legislative elections became known.
Emmanuel Macron and his wife Brigitte in Le Touquet-Paris-Plage, northern France, on June 29, 2024. Photographer: Ludovic Marin/AFP
The first round of France's snap legislative elections has narrowed the possible outcomes to two — both of which presage prolonged uncertainty for investors.
As the UK prepares to head to the polls on Thursday, the country's financial markets appear to be shedding their recent reputation for volatility — especially as the chaos in neighboring France spooks investors.
It's hard to overstate how nervous some people in markets are about the success of Marine Le Pen's hard-right Rassemblement National after the first round of France's legislative elections.
A hung parliament in France is more likely to produce a broad coalition government rather than an Italian-style technocrat-led administration, according to former central bank chief Jean-Claude Trichet.
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